🔗 Share this article

MI5 and counter-terror officers will function under a elevated level of vigilance over the next few weeks, reflecting apprehension that the assault on the Manchester synagogue might be followed by further incidents during a period that encompasses the two-year mark of the October 7th attack by Hamas against Israel.

Enhanced Protective Steps at Synagogues

Security presence around Jewish temples across the country is to be strengthened. The London mayor, Sadiq Khan, vowed “highly visible” patrols in and outside Jewish places of worship to provide comfort to communities and to deter any further threats, as police forces across the United Kingdom made similar commitments.

Early Stage Inquiries and Motive

Inquiries regarding the assault remain at an early stage, though the central theory is that the killer, who was shot dead by police, had an Islamist motivation. No details have emerged publicly available about if he may have been radicalised by the continued military operations in Gaza and Palestinian fatalities in Gaza.

Details of the Attack

The assault, at around 9.30am at the Heaton Park synagogue in the Crumpsall area of Manchester, which killed two and seriously injured four others, was not sophisticated.

There were concerns the perpetrator was carrying an explosive device and seemed to be wearing a vest and items attached to his waist, but the items were fakes. Those attacked at the synagogue, who were observing the last day of Yom Kippur, were attacked with a bladed weapon.

Primary Focus of Investigation

A major focus for investigators is if the individual acted alone, though there is believed to be no any ongoing threat to the public.

Plots orchestrated from abroad, once the norm in the era of al-Qaeda, have grown uncommon and individuals are typically extremised by following the news or accessing content via the internet.

Changed Security Landscape

Investigators additionally recognized that the 24-month conflict between Israel and Gaza has changed the security situation.

Two years ago, Sir Ken McCallum said: “There clearly is the potential that significant developments in the region will lead to an increase of UK threat, or change its shape in terms of the focus of attacks, in terms of how people are taking inspiration.”

International Context

During August, Australia’s prime minister announced that the Iranian government had orchestrated at least a pair of assaults against his country’s Jewish population, following an investigation by the Australian spy agency, which claimed it had “reliable information” to that end.

The attacks had been ordered by Iran's IRGC, utilizing paid intermediaries acting in Australia, and the disclosures prompted the Albanese government to expel Tehran’s ambassador to the Australian capital from Australia.

For now, there is nothing in the public domain to indicate any hostile state role or orchestration in the attack in Manchester.

National Threat Assessment

A review of the national terrorism threat level by the JTAC, which is housed inside MI5, is normal after a major incident. It has been maintained at the substantial level, the third of five levels, since February 2022 and for the moment is not anticipated to increase. However, this will be kept under close review.

A final judgement will depend heavily on the proof that is uncovered over the next few days from a search of the attacker’s mobile device and other digital devices, his internet activity and his property.

Historical Context

The most recent wave of major extremist assaults was in the spring and summer of 2017, beginning with an attack on a London bridge in March and followed by additional attacks at Manchester Arena and London Bridge in late spring and early summer in that order.

Assaults driven by similar extremism are not the sole worry for police and spy agencies. Two weeks after the London Bridge incident, a van was rammed into a mosque at a north London location, in a planned violent act after a period of heightened tension.

Persistent Danger

Though the emphasis of the recent years has been on threats from nations to the UK – particularly from the Russian Federation since the start of its large-scale military incursion of Ukraine, but additionally Iran and China - MI5 has been explicit that the threat from terrorism remains.

Last year, in his final yearly assessment, McCallum reported the intelligence agency and the law enforcement had disrupted “43 late-stage terror plots” since the Westminster attack in March 2017. Three quarters involved Islamist extremist plots, he added.