Is the Entertainment Fading? The Fall of Open-Play Goals from Open Play
A key narrative of the Premier League this campaign has been the decline of goals scored in open-play scenarios and how teams are netting increasingly from set-plays instead.
When we compare goal sources to matchday 11 the prior season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, leading to 13 less in total.
Considering the bigger picture, shot attempts teams are taking show a staggering 370 fewer in open-play than this time last time out.
And despite the big increase in dead-ball scores, records show a mere two extra attempts generated from them outside of penalties, showing how effective sides are at devising strategies to score from dead-ball chances.
Goal Averages Show a Story
301 total goals recorded in the first 110 fixtures up to now averages out at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, if maintained for the whole season would be the lowest for half a decade, since 2020-21 (2.69).
But just 196 goals coming in open-play averages out 1.78 per game and is on course to be the lowest for since 2009-10, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
The 2009-10 season additionally represents the only Premier League season to see goals scored at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79 per game).
Which Sides Account for This Change?
In terms of scoring from open-play, Wolves have experienced the largest decline, registering only four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 less than at this stage last season.
Apart from Wolverhampton, the EPL's drop in open play goals is largely a London thing, with five out of the capital's seven sides recording a minimum of five fewer goals from open play than last season.
To be fair, this is mainly because their scoring lots of goals at the start of the previous campaign rather than their genuine struggle to score in open-play this campaign.
Meanwhile City have recorded the most significant jump, with nearly all of their 23 scores this season originating in open play.
Set-Piece Success
We've compared clubs that came up with the relegated sides that they superseded. Play-off winners Sunderland have recorded three extra goals in open-play than Southampton managed in matchday 11 en route to the drop last season.
When it comes to goals scored from set-pieces (not counting spot-kicks), the Gunners and Chelsea have recorded the biggest increase, with both sides compensating for the reduction of five scores that they've netted in open play with the same number from set-pieces.
United have recorded double the number scores from set-pieces as they achieved in matchday 11 the previous campaign prior to Ruben Amorim assumed control, while the Black Cats once more have been better at netting than the similar-colored team that went down.
City don't seem to have got the trend about scoring more from set-plays, as they've recorded three fewer than the previous campaign, as have Nottingham Forest, even if that might be down to the tactical shift they've attempted to adopt.
Overall Patterns
Six teams – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, the Magpies, Tottenham and West Ham – have been the current campaign's top trend-setters by netting less scores from open play and increased from set-pieces, while Man City represent the sole team to defy the pattern up to now by performing the complete reverse.
It will be fascinating to see if sides persist to rely so heavily on set-plays as the season goes on or if they find again their general attacking flair and commence converting more goals in open play as well.
